Methodology for evaluating the inbound policy is required as inbound tourism turned to be one of the growing industries in Japan. In this study, forecasting inbound demand model that makes up of trip generation and distribution model was used to analyze the impact of political and external factors. Visa requirement for traveling other countries were included in the trip distribution model as the political factors. The result showed that visa requirement was confirmed to be the resistance of outbound travelers. The effect of visa free policy to Chinese traveler was estimated to get another 5 % visitors to Japan.