Dynamic analysis of stated preference for the New Transit System was carried out using the panel data collected in Hiroshima at three points in time; 1987, 88 and 90. It was first empirically demonstrated that changes of stated preference do not exhibit the Markovian assumptions which indicates the individual's response to a change of travel environment. This signifies the importance of dynamic approach in model building. It was also shown that the dynamic mode choice models of logit type introducing time lagged variables such as personal car use history could improve the goodness-of-fit of models as compared with traditional cross sectional models. Furthermore, the LISREL was applied to SP dynamic models to analyze the attitudinal structure of stated preference for the NTS. Results could show the significance of serial correlation and state dependence in SP model structure, confirming the above conclusion.

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This study analyzes the departure time choice behavior of commuting driver by using an empirical data collected through on-road surveys and a panel survey. The analysis are based on the Effective Travel Time hypothesis, that is, a driver takes a safety margin time adding to the expected travel time in order to cope with travel time variation. This paper, therefore, focuses on the decision behavior of safety margin and investigates the factors affecting its size. The factors concerned are categorized as; a) indicating the importance of trip - some social attributes and characteristics of trip, and b) representing driver's knowledge on travel time variation. This paper shows the results of quantitative analysis and that the occupation type greatly affects the safety margin.

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In some context of travel demand analysis, mixture of discrete and continuous dependent variables should be considered simultaneously. Most of these cases the correlation of error terms between the two required discrete-continuous model technique to avoid biased estimation of parameters. We have applied this to the context of shopping destination choice model as discrete, and shopping trip generation model as continuous model, following utility maximization theory.
In conclusion, the analysis which could account for the discrete-continuous error term correlation indicated the biased situation and correcting terms, inserted into shopping trip generation model, were found to be significant.
Finally existent trip generation model, ordered logistic model, was constructed to compare model reliability and characteristics. Relatively ordered logistic model indicated suferior ability to reproduce the original dataset, but corrected discrete-continuous model had also some power of prediction.

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The size of container has a close relation to the scale of vehicles. Therefore it is important for infrastructure planning to analyze the need for container size in logistics systems. This paper explores to estimate models that evaluate behavior for the choice of container size.
Since container have an upper and a lower limit size to be utilized, a shipper's choice behavior occurs either discretely or continuously. For those kinds of problems, Two Limit Tobit Model can be used. The concept was pioneered by R. Rosett et al.(1975).
This paper also tries to develop a method for estimating expected values which predict the dependent variable of Two Limit Tobit Model.

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The road network of recreation areas in the outskirts of Tokyo Metropolitan area is argued in this paper. The recreation trips concentrate spatially and temporally. There are a lot of congested points in recreation areas. In this paper we analyze recreation behavior to apply the concept of traffic management system to thus network.
However the touring behavior is determined by the attraction of spot and road itself, to add to time and cost, and almost trips have many destinations. So destination choice model and route choice model on touring trips are estimated. The model structure of these models is nested logit model. After that, we estimate the duration model based on hazard function in recreation zone. By the integration of these models, it will be possible to calculate the temporal and spatial trip distribution on the network in recreation area.

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The purpose of this paper is to propose a toll system of an urban expressway under the condition that competitive routes are existing in the over-lapped uniform fare circles. After reviewing the over-lapped pricing model developed previously, an additional constraint concerning the fare-balance between competitive routes in the expressway will be incorporated into the model. This improved model thus intends to obtain an optimal solution of the on-lamp and check-point fares satisfying the constraint that fare-difference in the two routes is less than benifit of the saving-time derived from the reduced traffic demand in relatively expensive route. Firstly, a fixed demand type of the model is formulated and its basic properties will be presented. This model focuses on effectiveness of two types of the fare-balance constraint. Secondly, a demand-responsed type of model is developed and empirically examined through a practical application.

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The flow characteristics and the capacity of right-turn lane at signalized intersection are the important elements in the planning of urban traffic operation. However, these are not fully analyzed and a question arises as to whether the existing method for estimating capacity of right-turn lane provide proper estimates.
In this paper, it is attempted to analyze the flow characteristics of right-turn movement and the capacity of right-turn lane at signalized intersection, and to discuss the existing method for estimating capacity of right-turn lane based on the results of observation and simulation.
The results showed some findings on the flow rate of opposing lane, signal change interval and right-turn lane capacity, and suggested that the existing method provide an over-estimate of right-turn capacity.

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This study aims to modelize the driver's following behabior in the urban area. To collect the velocity-space gap (V-S) relation data, the field survey with the test driving by examiners were carried out.
From the analysis of these data, it was clarified that the following behavior can be classified into two parts. In the first part, V-S relation is good described by the Gazis-Herman-Rothery model. In the other part, velocity and space gap is approaching to their macro-scopic relation function.
Also from these data, the variation of drivers measured in V-S relation ware clarified.
In the application of these models, the evaluation of predicting error in the simulation were carried.

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On-ramp control has been considered as the most effective and practicable means for reducing traffic congestion when demands exceed capacities. More research has been directed to the application of Linear Programming techniques for the problem of on-ramp control. The greatest advantage of this technique is its simplicity in formulation and its extremely short computation time. However, this LP on-ramp control still has some essential problems due to the steady state assumption of flows. In this paper we try to improve the previous LP on-ramp control model from two points of view. One is that in the new model we take account of the transitional distribution of flows in time and space in order to release from the unrealistic steady state assumption. Another one is that we consider an application of fuzzy reasoning for representing both linguistic knowledge and unexactly modeled systems.

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A highly reliable road network provides sure and stable traffic service by offering drivers alternative routes even when some part of the network is damaged in a disaster. The closure of San Francisco Oakland Bay Bridge caused by 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake brought heavy functional damage on San Francisco Bay Area road network. For the purpose of road construction and traffic management for a highly reliable road network, the identification of effects of disaster is substantial. However, no opportunity of disaster analysis from the point of traffic view has been carried out in Japan due to the lack of basis data. This paper presents the analysis of functional effects of road network based on San Francisco Bay area traffic data. Functional effects of road network capacity, average travel time and terminal reliability are identified before and after the earthquake, including the evaluation of transportation share effects with BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit) and of the additional HOV (High-Occupancy-Vehicle) lanes effects.

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It has been suggested that the development of telecommunication technology may affect the travel demand and the spatial distribution of urban activities.
We formulate a behavioral model of office firm which describes the choice of mode for communication (between face-to-face contacts and telecommunication), intensity of communication and location.
We analyze both short-run and long-run effects of the development of telecommunication technology which is represented by the decrease in the cost for the use of telecommunication facilities. It is shown that, by the decrease of telecommunication cost, the travel demand is either increased or decreased depending on the exogenous condition and location, the spatial distribution of firms is decentralized while city size is expanded.

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There are two ways to make region prosperously from the points of commercial and public use. The one way is to catch many visiters, and the other way is to encourage them to stay longer time in the area. This research focus on the latter and present the flamework for staying time analysis that indicates important factors which affect staying time in the area. This system is applied to the Osaka Metropolitan Area, and validity is examined. Besides, several findings are pointed out to encourage comfortable staying by effective infrastructure improvement.

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This paper presents the methodology to examine whether there is a general preference for travel longer, rather than shorter, distances once changes in the relatives location of homes and workplaces have been accounted for. The methodology exploits Stouffer's hypothesis and relates zonal preference functions to their upper and lower bounds, as determined mathematically by optimisation techniques. Its specific application in this paper has been to study changes in journey-to-work preference functions in Sapporo using person trip data for 1972 and 1983. The influence of transport infrastructure on travel behaviour is examined by contrasting the findings for the Nanboku Subway Line and the Tozai Subway Line.

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There are many kinds of quantitative models such as landuse models which analyze values by spatial unit. But there is no effective measures which show the goodness-of-fit of an estimated distribution to an observed distribution of the value. In this study, the authors propose measures to represent spatial fit between spatial distributions which they call Spatial Fit Indicators (SFIs). SFIs are defined as transportation costs of errors in order to reproduce the observed distribution from the estimated one. They can be regarded as indicators to show the degree of spatial discrepancy between the two distributions. In the present study, four kinds of SFIs are proposed to be corresponded with the purposes for evaluating distributions. Being corresponding with each SFI, a measure named Spatial Fit Grade GSM is derived from the population distribution of the SFI to absolutely evaluate each estimated distribution. The values of SFGs vary between -1 and 1, and the way of interpretation with them is very similar to that with the correlation coefficient.

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This paper provides a systems approach to analyzing economic viability of agrarian communities in depopulated areas, whereby our focus is addressed to the assessment of the managerial sustainability of family farming, which is very vulnerable to changes in market environment. In our formulation, a kengyo household which runs farming as a side job is described in the form of a producer-consumer complex, which is an economic unit simultaneously possessing both aspects of a producer and a consumer. We also develop an analytical model to assess the economic sustainability of family farming. A case study in Maori prefecture illustrates how individual family farming in depopulated areas can be viable under the coming free trade regime of agricultural products. It also demonstrates the applicability and the potential of our model in assessing the illustrated points.

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Recently many people have moved to Kanto area in Japan. This migration has caused serious problems, for example high land price in Tokyo, overpopulation and congestion problems. In order to resolve these roblem, several countermeasures have been taken. This study aims to develop a migration model to explain its causes and mechanism. We made two kinds of models to analyse the migration between regions and also between prefectures in Kanto area. In these models, the opportunity in migration and the regional utility explained by income, land price etc. are defined and used as exogenous variables. As a result, the opportunity in migration, income and land price can be pointed out as important variables.

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This article attempts to extend the urban evolutionary model originally developed by Allen and Sangrier, introducing the variety of urban functions and the choice probability of logit type for the location of consumption. Then the conditions of existence and globally asymptotical stability for the equilibrium points are explored, and a comparative static analysis on changes in the number of urban functions is made. These theoretic approaches are the first attempts among other previous studies related to Allen's achievements. Finally some numerical simulations are done for a quantative clarification of our theoretic approach.

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This study is aimed at proposing a model which can be used in evaluating a project to improve the trunk-line transport facil- ities in countries where such are in short. The model could generate a set of regional I-O tables from the national one and limited regional statistics. It explicitly considers the price differentials among regions, which are relevant to the interna- tional trade theory. After formulating the model, we assess the effects of fictitious improvement in the aggregated rail network in China on the bases of her 29 provinces. Although our calculation is confined to the fixed national table, the spatial distribution of economic indices is evaluated through concentration indices and location quotients with which we can assess whether the project demotes the regional disparities.

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The purpose of this study is to measure the benefits of interregional transportation improvement projects by the hedonic approach. First the study constructs a two regional general equilibrium model, in order to evaluate the changed prices due to the improvement in comparison with the net benefits. The study examines the applicability of the method with the case study of the Hokuriku Expressway project. Secondly the study demonstrates the applicability of the cross-sectional land price hedonic approach and shows the advantages of the cross-sectional land market approach.

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The concept of location surplus was proposed in CALUTAS Model to explain intra-urban location changes. In this paper, it is re-defined and examined theoretically, and then, incorporated into Walrasian general equilibrium model. Such conceptual and theoretical extension gives a new general equilibrium model which can deal with location equilibrium and multi-markets equilibrium simultaneously. Furthermore, relation between such an equilibrium model and mathematical programming is examined in this paper.

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This paper provides an optimization model to design the reservoir operation rules which can minimize the expected welfare loss per period. Our model can fall into that category of the so-called chance-constrained model, whereby two different types of chances, i.e., ‘expected drought duration’ and ‘drought frequencies’, are explic- itly taken into account by defining two types of state variables, which designates the maximum available amounts of water for release and specify the occurence of drought. Our model can be formulated in the form of a stochastic linear program- ming model. An practical approximation method is presented to purify the mixed strategies for reservoir operation.

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This paper discusses the methods of allocating costs of water resources development projects. A focus is placed on theoretical properties of cost functions. It is shown that justifiability of conventional methods such as the well-known SCRB method depends very much on the ex- tent to which they comply with a set of theoretical prop- erties selected. Two types of water resources projects, multi-reservoir development and regional sewage system development are selected and some basic analyses are performed to examine their theoretical properties of cost functions.

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The aim of this study is to analyze how the geographic information systems are used in Japan and to develop an information system suitable for town planning.
In Japan, many geographic information systems are employed, and most of them are developed from a viewpoint of data management. As such systems are often constructed on a large scale, they are not quite flexible enough for using town planning.
In this paper, a geographic information system, in order to assist planners in defining problems, prepareing improvement schemes, are developed. This system is installed a microcomputer, and uses digital housing maps recorded in CD--ROM as base maps.

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By integrating existing knowledge in seismology, earthquake engineering, and epidemiology, we developed a computer model applicable to the post-event, rapid estimation of expected fatalities for any given earthquake. Our design purpose for this model was to provide adequate information to simplify the post- event management of rescue activities. The model requires very few input varia- bles making it a potentially useful tool in the early phase of rescue mobilization. Input data required in the estimation are earthquake magnitude, epicenter loca- tion, and three regional data of population density, dominant building type, and seismic intensity increment due to local site effects. Once completed, we tested the model's performance accuracy using the data obtained from recent significant disasters.

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In this study optimization model for deduction of exceeding period of construction schedule initially planned against the restricted project duration is developed.
Before formulating the optimization model, topological property of limit-path network being used for the deduction of project duration time is studied, and so-called cut-network concept is developed for assigning time to jobs implemented at the same time in each step of assignment through optimization model operation.
Using this optimization model, the minimum cost deduction plan of which satisfies restricted duration time is obtained for the small-size model case.

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Up to the present, scheduling plans of pipe-line laying works have been generally made manually and interactively. Time-space scheduling model is very useful for works whose construction prosesses form linear structure such as pipe-line laying work. However existing time-space scheduling model is inapplicable to scheduling problems under resource constraints. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a resource- constrained time-space scheduling model not only for making a schedule plan but also for following up the slippage. This model is systematized for micro computer and some useful informations such as time-space scheduling diagram, distribution of road occupied duration at each site, and variation of excavated road length can be displayed graphically on computer. This model will be applied to the projects similar to pipe-line laying works with small modification.

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Recently, there has been an increasing interest in simultaneous terminal location and routing analysis. This kind of transportation problem is multi- objectives in nature. For instance, a shuttle type of the location-routing problem has two objectives, one of which is total construction and operation costs of a route and those of terminals on it, and the other is accessibility between demand points and their closest terminals.
In this paper, we propose an efficient method for the shuttle type of the location-routing problem on the constraint k shortest path problem and the minimal spanning tree problem basis. An application of the problem to the container ship routing and terminal location is presented.

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The requirement of consumers and retailers for convenience such as JIT service and high frequency delivery derived the increase of freight traffic flow in recent years, and the improvement of logistic system in urban region has been getting nation-wide interest from the standpoints of traffic congestion and environmental pollution. Many kinds of countermeasures like truck-bay construction on road side, joint goods transport by common carriers or whole-salers or socioscopic regulations are proposed against these problems.
This study proposes a macroscopic collection/delivery model where the rational economic behavior of carriers and truck drivers are introduced and which can output truck size, number of trucks, running distance, running time, and so on, so as to evaluate the effects and the influence of those countermeasures. The model is applied on a Japanese urban region, where a inter-carrier cooperation on cargo collection /delivery was introduced, and the effects of the joint work is quantitatively evaluated.

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The improvement of parking lots and their management contribute to revitalizing the commercial function of an central area in a local city. First, we investigate the preference structure of users for parking lots by using the measurement techniques such as the analytical hiararchy process (AHP) and a conjoint method (CJM). A questionnaire survey was carried out against users of parking lots in the central area of Nagaoka City. Both of the measurement reveal that the distance from a parking lot to destination and parking fees are the most important factors for users. Secondly, we analize the relationship between the priority index by the AHP and the operational efficiency of parking lots to introduce a demand forecasting model for a parking lot.

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In recent years, a lot of railway enrichment policies have been carried out. In this paper, we discuss the effects of such policies upon Nationl Land Structure by using the Integrated Traffic Policy Support System. In this system, reduction of time distance is selected as measurement for the enrichment of traffic facilities, and 4 socio-economic indices are selected to show the change of National Land Structure. In this paper, we have a try to estimate the effects for actual railway enrichment policies and find out such policies, not only construction of new-Shinkansen but also speed-up of existing lines, have a great influence upon Nationl Land Structure.

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Increasing attention is being directed to the relationship between environment and human behavior/consciousness. Little is known, however, about the causal relationship between the state of environ- ment and the evaluation of it.
This paper reports on the structure of evaluation of several river environments (the Naka, the Muromi, and the Mikasa Rivers and the Yanagawa Creek). The structure is clarified with childhood experience of residents along rivers, environmental photographs taken by children, and physical characteristics discribing the environmental quality of the rivers.
This paper emphasizes that childhood experiences on/in rivers need to be considered in user-based en- vironmental evaluation. It is claimed that in.the case that children are the main visitors to the river, fur- ther consideration to the condition of water and details of the waterside should be required in the planning of a riverfront.

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Some examples of increasingly rare and beautiful light and shadows can be found in the urban parks. Their atomsphere is based on exceptional compositions of gardens, paths and amusement facilities. In Tivoli Park and the Parc de la Villette beautiful shadows are formed by unseen patterns and devices that take into account the cultural climate and urban life.
The purpose of this study is to clarify and summarize the samples taken from actual two parks with an eye. We also try to make the design characteristics (arrangement of space and material, etc.) clear.

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This study aims to analyze the applicability of the animation using three dimensional computer graphics for the visual presentation in the landscape evaluation. According to the recent research of visual perception, the continuous perspective images by the motion of eyes are essential to acquire the knowledge of space and objects. Therefore, the adoption of the animation has the advantage of the landscape evaluation over the presentation by the still pictures. In this paper, the animation and the still presentation methods are compared during evaluation tests of landscape design: design plans of pedestrian deck and poster columns. And it is cleared that the animation is appropriate for the evaluation of psychological pressure due to the perception of shapes and volumes of objects, but it has little advantage in the evaluation of such as picturesque beauty.

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